Al-Qadisiyah FC 0-1 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 36%, yet in-form Al-Qadisiyah FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 3 as Al-Qadisiyah FC welcome Al Shabab to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 September 2024 at 16:20 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Qadisiyah FC — All Games: 2W 0D 0L from 2 Pro League outings this season, averaging 3.00 points per game. Last five: W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 2 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Shabab stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al Shabab have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Shabab's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Al-Qadisiyah FC have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using overall form). Al-Qadisiyah FC's 0% and Al Shabab's 20% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.13 xG and Al Shabab 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.050 / defence 0.968 | Al Shabab attack 0.903 / defence 0.785. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.321. Al Shabab's defence strength of 0.785 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 2 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 36 Al Shabab games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 35% | Draw 28% | Al Shabab 36%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Al Shabab 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Qadisiyah FC (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 16:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 35% | Draw 28% | Al Shabab 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.13 / Al Shabab 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.050 / def 0.968 | Al Shabab attack 0.903 / def 0.785 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Al Shabab xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab kicked off at 16:20 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 0 - 1 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 35% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W-W. Al Shabab (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack at 1.05x the league average against Al Shabab's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
35%
2.85
28%
3.51
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
2.28
1.15
Al Shabab xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
11%
9.04
12%
8.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 11.8 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.15 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent record stands at 2W 0D 0L from 2 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Shabab, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 1L across 2 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Shabab, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Qadisiyah FC by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Shabab heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 0.50 scored and 0.50 conceded. Al-Qadisiyah FC's scoring rate against Al Shabab's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Qadisiyah FC have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Al Shabab in 0%.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Al Shabab in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Early Season
Al Shabab
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 13 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Al-Qadisiyah FC's record when hosting Al Shabab specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1
Draws
1
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab?
From 5 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 3, Al Shabab have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 13 August 2026, when Al Shabab 1-3 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent matches and 0% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent games and 0% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Shabab edge out Al-Qadisiyah FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al-Qadisiyah FC 0-1 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.13 xG and Al Shabab 1.15 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Qadisiyah FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.05 / defence 0.97 against Al Shabab attack 0.90 / defence 0.79, drawn from 2/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 35% | Draw 28% | Al Shabab 36%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%, Al Shabab 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Al Shabab winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Qadisiyah FC managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.