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Dominant Al-Qadisiyah FC run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Al Riyadh.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Riyadh 4-0 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.95 xG and Al Riyadh 1.02 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Riyadh landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.09 / defence 0.77 against Al Riyadh attack 0.89 / defence 1.23, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 59% | Draw 22% | Al Riyadh 19%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 51%, Al Riyadh 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Al Riyadh's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights