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Al-Qadisiyah FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Orubah.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Orubah 3-1 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.40 xG and Al Orubah 0.83 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.13 / defence 0.76 against Al Orubah attack 0.76 / defence 1.38, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 72% | Draw 17% | Al Orubah 11%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 72%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 47%, Al Orubah 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Orubah's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights