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Shock result as Al-Qadisiyah FC defy the odds to beat Al-Nassr 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al-Nassr 2-1 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.09 xG and Al-Nassr 1.37 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.90 / defence 0.80 against Al-Nassr attack 1.33 / defence 0.83, drawn from 27/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 29% | Draw 28% | Al-Nassr 43%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Al-Qadisiyah FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 44%, Al-Nassr 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Nassr's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.93 PPG, Al-Nassr 2.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Qadisiyah FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights