Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-1 Al Najma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Najma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Al Najma travel to Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium to take on Al-Qadisiyah FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 August 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Qadisiyah FC haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Al-Qadisiyah FC are significantly better at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.88 xG and Al Najma 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.140 / defence 0.858 | Al Najma attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.513. Data: 34 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 0 Al Najma games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 56% | Draw 22% | Al Najma 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Al Najma 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Najma | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Aug 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 56% | Draw 22% | Al Najma 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.88 / Al Najma 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.140 / def 0.858 | Al Najma attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.513 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Al Najma xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Najma kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Najma kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 30 August 2025 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Najma?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 3 - 1 Al Najma.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Najma being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Najma part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Najma is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Najma?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 56% chance of winning, Al Najma a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Najma?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Najma will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Najma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Najma?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Najma in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack rating (1.14) and Al Najma's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Najma's attack versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
56%
1.80
22%
4.46
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
2.99
1.10
Al Najma xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
15%
6.57
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
3%
29.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Najma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Najma expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.10 for Al Najma, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Najma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Pre-Season
Al Najma
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
0
Draws
0
Al Najma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Najma?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, Al Najma have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Najma last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Al Najma 1-3 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Najma?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al Najma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Al-Qadisiyah FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Najma.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Najma 3-1 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.88 xG and Al Najma 1.10 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.14 / defence 0.86 against Al Najma attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 56% | Draw 22% | Al Najma 22%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.