Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Qadisiyah FC (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Qadisiyah FC face Al Khaleej Saihat.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Qadisiyah FC host Al Khaleej Saihat at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 10 December 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Qadisiyah FC — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Khaleej Saihat stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Khaleej Saihat's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Al-Qadisiyah FC have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Qadisiyah FC register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al-Qadisiyah FC: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Al Khaleej Saihat, with 1 draws across those contests.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
The historical record gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Al Khaleej Saihat in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Qadisiyah FC 63% and Al Khaleej Saihat 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Qadisiyah FC 70% | Al Khaleej Saihat 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.31 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.272 / defence 1.056 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.869 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.476. Al-Qadisiyah FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.272 — their λ of 2.31 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al Khaleej Saihat bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing Al-Qadisiyah FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 46 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 57% | Draw 23% | Al Khaleej Saihat 20%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Al Khaleej Saihat 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.31 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.66 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 80% | Al Khaleej Saihat 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 10 Dec 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 57% | Draw 23% | Al Khaleej Saihat 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 68% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.31 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.272 / def 1.056 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.869 / def 1.205 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
68%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Thursday 10 December 2026 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 57% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 3W | Draws 1 | Al Khaleej Saihat 0W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Qadisiyah FC's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Al Khaleej Saihat's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.31. The same calculation in reverse, Al Khaleej Saihat's attack versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 3-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
57%
1.75
23%
4.41
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
3.66
1.35
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.16
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
10%
10.04
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
2%
49.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.35 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent record stands at 32W 9D 5L from 46 games, a 2.28 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Khaleej Saihat, meanwhile, have gone 13W 13D 20L across 46 games — 1.13 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Qadisiyah FC by 1.15 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Khaleej Saihat heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Qadisiyah FC have managed 14W 7D 2L from 23 games — 2.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Khaleej Saihat's away record stands at 5W 8D 10L across 23 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 1.48 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Qadisiyah FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Al Khaleej Saihat in 63%.
Last 46 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 32W 9D 5L in their last 46 games (2.28 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 13W 13D 20L in their last 46 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.13 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al Khaleej Saihat been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al Khaleej Saihat in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Qadisiyah FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's record when hosting Al Khaleej Saihat specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1
Draws
0
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 3, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat 0-1 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Qadisiyah FC at 65%, Al Khaleej Saihat at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 61% for Al Khaleej Saihat. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's games and 78% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's matches and 61% of Al Khaleej Saihat's.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.