Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Qadisiyah FC (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Qadisiyah FC face Al Khaleej Saihat.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Qadisiyah FC host Al Khaleej Saihat at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 10 December 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Qadisiyah FC — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Khaleej Saihat stand at 0W 5D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al Khaleej Saihat have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Khaleej Saihat's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
On current form, Al-Qadisiyah FC have the edge — a 2.00 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al-Qadisiyah FC: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Al Khaleej Saihat, with 1 draws across those contests.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
The historical record gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Al Khaleej Saihat in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Qadisiyah FC 66% and Al Khaleej Saihat 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 68% | Al Khaleej Saihat 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.13 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.385 / defence 1.117 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.757 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.335. Al-Qadisiyah FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.385 — their λ of 2.13 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 41 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 40 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 58% | Draw 24% | Al Khaleej Saihat 17%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Al Khaleej Saihat 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.13 / 1.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 70% | Al Khaleej Saihat 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 10 Dec 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 58% | Draw 24% | Al Khaleej Saihat 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.13 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.385 / def 1.117 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.757 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Thursday 10 December 2026 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 58% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 3W | Draws 1 | Al Khaleej Saihat 0W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Qadisiyah FC's attacking strength (1.39x league average) is weighed against Al Khaleej Saihat's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.13. The same calculation in reverse, Al Khaleej Saihat's attack versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
58%
1.72
24%
4.10
17%
5.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
3.25
1.13
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
5.75
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
12%
8.39
Win to Nil
19%
5.31
2%
48.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.13 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent record stands at 28W 9D 4L from 41 games, a 2.27 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Khaleej Saihat, meanwhile, have gone 10W 12D 19L across 41 games — 1.02 PPG, with D-L-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Qadisiyah FC by 1.25 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Khaleej Saihat heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Qadisiyah FC have managed 12W 7D 1L from 20 games — 2.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Khaleej Saihat's away record stands at 4W 7D 9L across 20 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 2.41 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 1.39 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Qadisiyah FC have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Al Khaleej Saihat in 61%.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Early Season
Al Khaleej Saihat
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 28W 9D 4L in their last 41 games (2.27 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 10W 12D 19L in their last 41 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.15 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Qadisiyah FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's record when hosting Al Khaleej Saihat specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1
Draws
0
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 3, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat 0-1 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Qadisiyah FC at 60%, Al Khaleej Saihat at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 60% for Al Khaleej Saihat. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's games and 75% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's matches and 60% of Al Khaleej Saihat's.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.