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Prediction vindicated as Al-Qadisiyah FC edge out Al Khaleej Saihat 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Khaleej Saihat 2-1 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.81 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.54 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.17 / defence 0.88 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.21 / defence 0.98, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 44% | Draw 23% | Al Khaleej Saihat 33%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%, Al Khaleej Saihat 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights