Al-Qadisiyah FC 0-1 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 2 as Al-Qadisiyah FC welcome Al-Ittihad FC to Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 21 August 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Al-Qadisiyah FC have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, Al-Ittihad FC 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2026, ended 5–1 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Qadisiyah FC 69% and Al-Ittihad FC 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 71% | Al-Ittihad FC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.80 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.187 / defence 0.882 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.088 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.408. Data: 35 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 35 Al-Ittihad FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 47% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Ittihad FC 3.70. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 70% | Al-Ittihad FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 21 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 47% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.80 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.187 / def 0.882 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.088 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Al-Ittihad FC xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 21 August 2026 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 0 - 1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 47% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 2W | Draws 1 | Al-Ittihad FC 1W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack at 1.19x the league average against Al-Ittihad FC's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
47%
2.14
26%
3.86
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
3.15
1.35
Al-Ittihad FC xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
17%
6.06
Win to Nil
12%
8.29
5%
22.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.4 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.35 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Qadisiyah FC come into this having played 35 games, going 24W 8D 3L for 2.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Ittihad FC sit at 1.60 PPG from 35 outings (16W 8D 11L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Al-Ittihad FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home form reads 11W 6D 0L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ittihad FC have taken 1.41 points per game from 17 outings (6W 6D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 2.46 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Qadisiyah FC have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Al-Ittihad FC in 60%.
Last 35 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Early Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 24W 8D 3L in their last 35 games (2.29 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 16W 8D 11L in their last 35 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.29 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ittihad FC runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1
Draws
2
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 5 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, Al-Ittihad FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 0-1 Al-Ittihad FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Qadisiyah FC at 59%, Al-Ittihad FC at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 59% for Al-Ittihad FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's games and 76% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's matches and 59% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ittihad FC defy the odds to beat Al-Qadisiyah FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Qadisiyah FC 0-1 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.80 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.35 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Qadisiyah FC fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.19 / defence 0.88 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.09 / defence 1.00, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 47% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad FC 27%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Al-Ittihad FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 71%, Al-Ittihad FC 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.60. Form was overturned, with Al-Ittihad FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.35 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.