Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Al-Hilal Saudi FC travel to Prince Mohammed Bin Fahd Stadium to take on Al-Qadisiyah FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 23 October 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have posted 6W 3D 1L at Prince Mohammed Bin Fahd Stadium — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.50 PPG, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 1, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 63% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 67% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.24 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.296 / defence 1.016 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.697 / defence 0.683. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.432. Al-Qadisiyah FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.296 — their λ of 1.24 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence strength of 0.683 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.697 — the away xG of 2.47 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 43 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 16% | Draw 21% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 63%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 6.25 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.71. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.71 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.24 / 2.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 80% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Prince Mohammed Bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 16% | Draw 21% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 67% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.24 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.47 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.296 / def 1.016 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.697 / def 0.683 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
2.47
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
67%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 23 October 2026 at Prince Mohammed Bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 2 - 3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohammed Bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 16% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 63% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 1W | Draws 2 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack rating (1.30) and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating (0.68), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence, projects 2.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.5%), 1-3 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
16%
6.28
21%
4.70
63%
1.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.6%
Away win
0 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
3.71
2.47
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
6.28
16%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
1.59
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
8%
11.83
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
1%
74.29
18%
5.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 2.47 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Qadisiyah FC come into this having played 43 games, going 30W 9D 4L for 2.30 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC sit at 2.51 PPG from 43 outings (33W 9D 1L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Qadisiyah FC on 2.30 PPG, Al-Hilal Saudi FC on 2.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home form reads 13W 7D 1L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have taken 2.52 points per game from 21 outings (16W 5D 0L).
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 2.42 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.60 scored and 0.79 conceded. Al-Qadisiyah FC's scoring rate against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Qadisiyah FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 30W 9D 4L in their last 43 games (2.30 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 33W 9D 1L in their last 43 (2.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.19 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.52 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 23 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Al-Qadisiyah FC's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Al-Qadisiyah FC
2
Draws
2
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 5 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 1, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 23 October 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 62%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 62% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's games and 52% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's matches and 62% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Hilal Saudi FC edge out Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-3 at Prince Mohammed Bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.24 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.47 xG, a combined 3.71. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.30 / defence 1.02 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.70 / defence 0.68, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 16% | Draw 21% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 63%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 67%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.30 PPG, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Hilal Saudi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.