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Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 19, as Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC drew 2-2 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.79 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.21 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.35 / defence 0.64 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.33 / defence 0.86, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% | Draw 25% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 25%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 57%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.10 PPG, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights