Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Qadisiyah FC (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Qadisiyah FC face Al-Fayha.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Al-Qadisiyah FC welcome Al-Fayha to Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 5 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC stand at 9W 0D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fayha's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.90 PPG ahead (2.70 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 1 for Al-Fayha and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 2–1 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Qadisiyah FC 65% and Al-Fayha 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 68% | Al-Fayha 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.83 xG and Al-Fayha 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.280 / defence 1.007 | Al-Fayha attack 0.834 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.286. Al-Qadisiyah FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.280 — their λ of 1.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 40 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 40 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 52% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 20%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Fayha 5.00. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 60% | Al-Fayha 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 5 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 52% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.83 / Al-Fayha 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.280 / def 1.007 | Al-Fayha attack 0.834 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Al-Fayha xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Thursday 5 November 2026 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 52% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 3W | Draws 0 | Al-Fayha 1W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack rating (1.28) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
52%
1.91
28%
3.59
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
2.91
1.08
Al-Fayha xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
16%
6.22
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
3%
31.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 10.8 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.08 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent record stands at 28W 8D 4L from 40 games, a 2.30 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 11W 10D 19L across 40 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-D-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Qadisiyah FC by 1.22 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fayha heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Qadisiyah FC have managed 13W 6D 1L from 20 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 4W 3D 13L across 20 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 2.40 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.20 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Qadisiyah FC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Early Season
Al-Fayha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 28W 8D 4L in their last 40 games (2.30 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 11W 10D 19L in their last 40 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.25 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Al-Qadisiyah FC
0
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 3, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-2 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 60%, Al-Fayha 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 65% for Al-Fayha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Al-Fayha in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's games and 55% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's matches and 65% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.