Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 7 as Al-Qadisiyah FC welcome Al-Ettifaq to Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 11 September 2026 at 15:25 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Qadisiyah FC — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.70 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Qadisiyah FC at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.10 lags behind their overall 2.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium this season.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ettifaq have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ettifaq's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.70 vs 1.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 1 for Al-Ettifaq and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 2–3 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 64% versus Al-Ettifaq 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 67% | Al-Ettifaq 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.22 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.131 / defence 0.884 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.981 / defence 0.773. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.309. Al-Ettifaq's defence strength of 0.773 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 39 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 39 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 35% | Draw 33% | Al-Ettifaq 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | Al-Ettifaq 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Qadisiyah FC 60% | Al-Ettifaq 30%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 11 Sep 2026, 15:25 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 35% | Draw 33% | Al-Ettifaq 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.22 / Al-Ettifaq 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.131 / def 0.884 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.981 / def 0.773 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Al-Ettifaq xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq is scheduled to kick off at 15:25 on Friday 11 September 2026 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 35% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 2W | Draws 1 | Al-Ettifaq 1W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack at 1.13x the league average against Al-Ettifaq's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
35%
2.82
33%
3.00
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
2.36
1.14
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
11%
8.78
9%
10.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.8 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.14 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent record stands at 27W 8D 4L from 39 games, a 2.28 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 17W 8D 14L across 39 games — 1.51 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Qadisiyah FC by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ettifaq heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Qadisiyah FC have managed 12W 6D 1L from 19 games — 2.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ettifaq's away record stands at 9W 2D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 2.38 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.51 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Qadisiyah FC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Early Season
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 27W 8D 4L in their last 39 games (2.28 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 17W 8D 14L in their last 39 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.21 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Feb 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1
Draws
1
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 3-2 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 58%, Al-Ettifaq 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Al-Qadisiyah FC) and 53% (Al-Ettifaq). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent matches and 47% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's matches and 53% of Al-Ettifaq's.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.