Al-Qadisiyah FC 1-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddah make the trip to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to face Al-Qadisiyah FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Friday 27 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all games): 2W 1D 1L across 4 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.75 PPG. Last five: W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 4 games (75%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ahli Jeddah have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.75 PPG for Al-Qadisiyah FC against 2.00 for Al-Ahli Jeddah. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Al-Qadisiyah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Al-Ahli Jeddah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al-Qadisiyah FC 0% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Qadisiyah FC 25% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.12 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.911 / defence 0.984 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.935 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.279. Data: 4 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 38 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 34% | Draw 28% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 37%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 0% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 27 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 34% | Draw 28% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.12 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.911 / def 0.984 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.935 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 September 2024 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 1 - 0 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 34% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.25 | L5 W-W-L-D. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack rating (0.91) and Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack (0.94x) against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 4/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
34%
2.91
28%
3.52
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
2.29
1.18
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
11%
9.45
12%
8.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 11.9 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.18 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 4 outings, Al-Qadisiyah FC have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 2W 1D 1L record — W-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form line: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for Al-Qadisiyah FC against 1.75 for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.25 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.75 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Qadisiyah FC have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Early Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4-1 on 25 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ahli Jeddah — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
0
Draws
2
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Qadisiyah FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Al-Ahli Jeddah see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Al-Qadisiyah FC) and 50% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 25% for Al-Ahli Jeddah.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Al-Qadisiyah FC have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent matches and 50% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent games and 25% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Al-Qadisiyah FC defy the odds to beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-0 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.12 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.18 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ahli Jeddah landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.91 / defence 0.98 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.94 / defence 0.89, drawn from 4/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 34% | Draw 28% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 37%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Al-Qadisiyah FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 25%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.75 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Qadisiyah FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ahli Jeddah managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.