Al Orubah 1-0 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Orubah at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Orubah vs Damac fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Damac travel to Al-Jouf University Stadium to take on Al Orubah. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 September 2024, 16:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Orubah — All Games: 1W 1D 2L from 4 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D W. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 1.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al Orubah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Damac stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Damac have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Damac's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Orubah 1.00 PPG, Damac 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Al Orubah in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Damac in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Orubah 50% and Damac 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Orubah 50% | Damac 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Orubah 1.45 xG and Damac 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Orubah attack 0.792 / defence 0.966 | Damac attack 1.112 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.300. Al Orubah's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 1.45 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Damac bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing Al Orubah's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Al Orubah games / 38 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Orubah 39% | Draw 25% | Damac 36%. Fair-value odds: Al Orubah 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Damac 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Orubah at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Orubah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Al Orubah 50% | Damac 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Orubah vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Al-Jouf University Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 16:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Orubah 39% | Draw 25% | Damac 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Al Orubah 1.45 / Damac 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Al Orubah attack 0.792 / def 0.966 | Damac attack 1.112 / def 1.301 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Al Orubah (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Al Orubah xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Damac xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Orubah vs Damac kick off?
Al Orubah vs Damac kicked off at 16:45 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Al-Jouf University Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Orubah vs Damac?
Al Orubah 1 - 0 Damac.
Where is Al Orubah vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Al-Jouf University Stadium.
What competition is Al Orubah vs Damac part of?
Al Orubah vs Damac is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Orubah vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al Orubah a 39% chance of winning, Damac a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Orubah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Orubah vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al Orubah and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al Orubah vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Orubah and Damac?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Orubah and Damac in?
Al Orubah (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-L-D-W. Damac (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Orubah's attack rating (0.79) and Damac's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Damac's attack versus Al Orubah's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Orubah Win
39%
2.58
25%
4.00
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Al Orubah xG
Total xG
2.85
1.40
Damac xG
2.58
39%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
10%
10.43
8%
11.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.7 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Orubah vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Al Orubah and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Al Orubah and 1.40 for Damac, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Orubah vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 4 outings, Al Orubah have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 1D 2L record — L-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al Orubah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Damac's form line: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games, 0.75 PPG, last five L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Damac, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Orubah on 1.00 PPG, Damac on 0.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Orubah are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.75 scored and 2.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Damac in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Orubah
Early Season
Damac
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Orubah and Damac in coming into this match?
Al Orubah have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Damac have gone 1W 0D 3L in their last 4 (0.75 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Al Orubah
0
Draws
0
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Orubah and Damac?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Orubah have won 2, Damac have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Orubah and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2025, when Damac 1-2 Al Orubah.
Who has won more matches between Al Orubah and Damac?
Al Orubah have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Orubah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Orubah 50%, Damac 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Al Orubah and 75% for Damac. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Orubah home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Orubah play Damac?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al Orubah's games and 75% of Damac's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Orubah vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al Orubah's matches and 75% of Damac's.
Do Al Orubah and Damac tend to score early?
Al Orubah have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Damac in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Orubah edge out Damac 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Orubah beat Damac 1-0 at Al-Jouf University Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Orubah 1.45 xG and Damac 1.40 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Damac landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Orubah attack 0.79 / defence 0.97 against Damac attack 1.11 / defence 1.30, drawn from 4/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Orubah 39% | Draw 25% | Damac 36%, with Al Orubah to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Orubah 50%, Damac 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Orubah's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Damac's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Orubah 1.00 PPG, Damac 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Orubah win broke the near-deadlock. Al Orubah conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Damac managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.