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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Orubah cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Al Wehda Club.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Orubah beat Al Wehda Club 4-2 at Al-Jouf University Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Orubah 0.74 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.57 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Al Orubah beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Orubah attack 0.43 / defence 1.38 against Al Wehda Club attack 0.85 / defence 1.13, drawn from 18/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Orubah 17% | Draw 25% | Al Wehda Club 57%, with Al Wehda Club to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Al Orubah win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Orubah 50%, Al Wehda Club 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Orubah's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did.

Al Wehda Club's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Orubah 0.78 PPG, Al Wehda Club 0.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Orubah win broke the near-deadlock. Al Orubah (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.25 average — above their attacking norm. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights