🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Al Taawon at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Orubah vs Al Taawon encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 34 as Al Orubah welcome Al Taawon to Al-Jouf University Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 26 May 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Al Orubah — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.

Al Orubah at Al-Jouf University Stadium this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Al Orubah are significantly better at Al-Jouf University Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taawon stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Al Taawon's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al Taawon — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al Orubah, 0 for Al Taawon and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Al Orubah in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 52% of games.

Al Taawon in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Orubah 36% versus Al Taawon 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Orubah 61% | Al Taawon 30%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Orubah 0.77 xG and Al Taawon 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Orubah attack 0.693 / defence 1.347 | Al Taawon attack 0.760 / defence 0.721. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.433. Al Orubah's attack strength of 0.693 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Taawon's defence strength of 0.721 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 33 Al Orubah games / 67 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Orubah 20% | Draw 27% | Al Taawon 54%. Fair-value odds: Al Orubah 5.00 | Draw 3.70 | Al Taawon 1.85. Al Taawon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Taawon at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al Orubah 50% | Al Taawon 30% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights