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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al Okhdood edge out Al Orubah 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Okhdood beat Al Orubah 0-1 at Al-Jouf University Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Orubah 1.24 xG and Al Okhdood 1.29 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Orubah fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Orubah attack 0.81 / defence 1.21 against Al Okhdood attack 0.81 / defence 1.02, drawn from 25/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Orubah 36% | Draw 27% | Al Okhdood 38%, with Al Okhdood to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Orubah 56%, Al Okhdood 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Orubah's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 52% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al Okhdood's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Orubah 1.04 PPG, Al Okhdood 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Okhdood win broke the near-deadlock. Al Orubah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights