Al Orubah 0-1 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Okhdood at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Orubah vs Al Okhdood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Okhdood make the trip to Al-Jouf University Stadium to face Al Orubah in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Friday 4 April 2025 at 15:45 UTC.
Form
Al Orubah (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Orubah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al-Jouf University Stadium, Al Orubah have gone 3W 0D 7L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al Okhdood have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Okhdood's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Al Orubah's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Al Okhdood's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Al Orubah, 1 for Al Okhdood and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2024, ended 0–4 with Al Okhdood winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al Orubah — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
Al Okhdood — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Orubah 32% versus Al Okhdood 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Orubah 56% | Al Okhdood 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Orubah 1.24 xG and Al Okhdood 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Orubah attack 0.806 / defence 1.207 | Al Okhdood attack 0.813 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.314. Data: 25 Al Orubah games / 59 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Orubah 36% | Draw 27% | Al Okhdood 38%. Fair-value odds: Al Orubah 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Al Okhdood 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Okhdood are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Orubah (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Okhdood if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Al Orubah 30% | Al Okhdood 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Orubah vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Al-Jouf University Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 4 Apr 2025, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Orubah 36% | Draw 27% | Al Okhdood 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Al Orubah 1.24 / Al Okhdood 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Al Orubah attack 0.806 / def 1.207 | Al Okhdood attack 0.813 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.510 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Al Okhdood (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Al Orubah xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Al Okhdood xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Orubah vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al Orubah vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 15:45 on Friday 4 April 2025 at Al-Jouf University Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Orubah vs Al Okhdood?
Al Orubah 0 - 1 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al Orubah vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at Al-Jouf University Stadium.
What competition is Al Orubah vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al Orubah vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Orubah vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al Orubah a 36% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Okhdood the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Orubah vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al Orubah and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Al Orubah vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Orubah and Al Okhdood?
Record (1 meetings): Al Orubah 0W | Draws 0 | Al Okhdood 1W.
What form are Al Orubah and Al Okhdood in?
Al Orubah (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Al Okhdood (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Orubah's attack rating (0.81) and Al Okhdood's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Okhdood's attack (0.81x) against Al Orubah's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 25/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Okhdood Win
36%
2.81
27%
3.73
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Al Orubah xG
Total xG
2.53
1.29
Al Okhdood xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
10%
10.21
11%
9.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.2 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Orubah vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al Orubah and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Al Orubah and 1.29 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Orubah vs Al Okhdood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Orubah come into this having played 25 games, going 8W 2D 15L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Al Orubah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Okhdood sit at 0.80 PPG from 25 outings (5W 5D 15L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Al Orubah against 0.80 for Al Okhdood. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al Orubah's home form reads 5W 0D 7L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Okhdood have taken 0.92 points per game from 12 outings (3W 2D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Orubah are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Orubah
Blended
Al Okhdood
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Orubah and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al Orubah have gone 8W 2D 15L in their last 25 games (1.04 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 5W 5D 15L in their last 25 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Orubah at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al Orubah's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Orubah at home: 1.25 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al Orubah
0
Draws
2
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Orubah and Al Okhdood?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Orubah have won 0, Al Okhdood have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Orubah and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2025, when Al Orubah 0-1 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Al Orubah and Al Okhdood?
Al Okhdood have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Orubah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Orubah 25%, Al Okhdood 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Al Orubah) and 42% (Al Okhdood).
On the defensive side: Al Orubah have failed to score in 50% of games; Al Okhdood in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Orubah home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Orubah play Al Okhdood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Al Orubah's recent matches and 50% of Al Okhdood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Orubah vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Al Orubah's recent games and 42% of Al Okhdood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Orubah and Al Okhdood tend to score early?
Al Orubah have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Okhdood in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Okhdood edge out Al Orubah 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Okhdood beat Al Orubah 0-1 at Al-Jouf University Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Orubah 1.24 xG and Al Okhdood 1.29 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Orubah fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Orubah attack 0.81 / defence 1.21 against Al Okhdood attack 0.81 / defence 1.02, drawn from 25/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Orubah 36% | Draw 27% | Al Okhdood 38%, with Al Okhdood to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Orubah 56%, Al Okhdood 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Orubah's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 52% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Orubah 1.04 PPG, Al Okhdood 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Okhdood win broke the near-deadlock. Al Orubah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.