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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Orubah and Al-Fayha share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Orubah and Al-Fayha finished level at 2-2 at Al-Jouf University Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Orubah 1.07 xG and Al-Fayha 1.47 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al Orubah beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Orubah attack 0.67 / defence 1.34 against Al-Fayha attack 0.81 / defence 1.11, drawn from 28/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Orubah 27% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 46%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Orubah 54%, Al-Fayha 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Orubah's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Fayha's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Orubah 0.93 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Orubah (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights