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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Ettifaq edge out Al Orubah 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ettifaq beat Al Orubah 1-2 at Al-Jouf University Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Orubah 1.01 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.81 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Orubah attack 0.80 / defence 1.18 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.15 / defence 0.84, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Orubah 21% | Draw 23% | Al-Ettifaq 56%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Orubah 52%, Al-Ettifaq 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Orubah's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Orubah 1.13 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights