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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al Taawon edge out Al Okhdood 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Taawon beat Al Okhdood 2-3 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.36 xG and Al Taawon 1.93 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al Taawon outscored their 1.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.96 / defence 1.40 against Al Taawon attack 0.92 / defence 0.94, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 27% | Draw 22% | Al Taawon 51%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 49%, Al Taawon 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Okhdood's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Al Taawon's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Okhdood 0.97 PPG, Al Taawon 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Taawon win broke the near-deadlock. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Taawon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights