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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Okhdood and Al Riyadh share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Okhdood and Al Riyadh finished level at 2-2 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.52 xG and Al Riyadh 1.12 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al Riyadh outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.74 / defence 0.98 against Al Riyadh attack 0.77 / defence 1.33, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 46% | Draw 26% | Al Riyadh 28%, with Al Okhdood to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 47%, Al Riyadh 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Okhdood's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Al Riyadh's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Okhdood 0.86 PPG, Al Riyadh 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights