🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Okhdood face Al-Ittihad FC.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 1 as Al Okhdood welcome Al-Ittihad FC to Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 August 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al Okhdood have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Al Okhdood haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Al Okhdood's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City this season.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Ittihad FC haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Al-Ittihad FC's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form points away from home here. Al-Ittihad FC's 2.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Al Okhdood's 1.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Okhdood register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

Al-Ittihad FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 4 encounters against Al Okhdood's 0 victories.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

It is worth noting that Al-Ittihad FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Patterns

Al Okhdood in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 47% versus Al-Ittihad FC 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 47% | Al-Ittihad FC 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.28 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.893 / defence 1.139 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.106 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.513. Data: 34 Al Okhdood games / 34 Al-Ittihad FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 26% | Draw 22% | Al-Ittihad FC 52%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 3.85 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Ittihad FC 1.92. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.28 / 1.91) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 60% | Al-Ittihad FC 90% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights