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Shock result as Al-Hazm defy the odds to beat Al Okhdood 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Hazm beat Al Okhdood 1-2 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.65 xG and Al-Hazm 1.46 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 1.06 / defence 1.44 against Al-Hazm attack 0.67 / defence 1.05, drawn from 38/4 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 42% | Draw 24% | Al-Hazm 34%, with Al Okhdood to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Al-Hazm win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 75%, Al-Hazm 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Okhdood's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Hazm's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Hazm arrived the stronger side — 0.50 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Al Okhdood conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Hazm scored 2 against a 0.25 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights