Al Okhdood 0-2 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Okhdood host Al-Ettifaq at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 February 2025 at 15:40 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Okhdood have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Al Okhdood have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ettifaq stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Al Okhdood) versus 1.10 (Al-Ettifaq). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Okhdood register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Ettifaq in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Al Okhdood have won 1, Al-Ettifaq 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Al Okhdood in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Al-Ettifaq in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 50% versus Al-Ettifaq 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 56% | Al-Ettifaq 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.00 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.788 / defence 1.106 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.115 / defence 0.801. League average goals — home 1.581 / away 1.334. Al Okhdood's attack strength of 0.788 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 Al Okhdood games / 52 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 23% | Draw 25% | Al-Ettifaq 52%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 4.35 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Ettifaq 1.92. Al-Ettifaq hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 60% | Al-Ettifaq 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Feb 2025, 15:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 23% | Draw 25% | Al-Ettifaq 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Al Okhdood 1.00 / Al-Ettifaq 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.788 / def 1.106 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.115 / def 0.801 | league avg home 1.581 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Al-Ettifaq xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 15:40 on Saturday 8 February 2025 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al Okhdood 0 - 2 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 23% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 52% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (3 meetings): Al Okhdood 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Ettifaq 1W.
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al Okhdood (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Okhdood's attack at 0.79x the league average against Al-Ettifaq's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al Okhdood's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
23%
4.36
25%
4.07
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
2.64
1.64
Al-Ettifaq xG
4.36
23%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
19%
5.18
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
4%
22.55
19%
5.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 1.64 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Okhdood come into this having played 52 games, going 13W 9D 30L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ettifaq sit at 1.35 PPG from 52 outings (18W 16D 18L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Okhdood's home form reads 7W 3D 16L across 26 games on their own ground, a 0.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ettifaq have taken 1.50 points per game from 26 outings (10W 9D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Okhdood are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.25 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 13W 9D 30L in their last 52 games (0.92 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 18W 16D 18L in their last 52 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Ettifaq's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 0.92 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Al Okhdood or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Okhdood have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Okhdood and Al-Ettifaq runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 30 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ettifaq go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Al Okhdood's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al Okhdood
1
Draws
4
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Ettifaq?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Okhdood have won 1, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2026, when Al Okhdood 1-3 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Okhdood 54%, Al-Ettifaq 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Al Okhdood) and 38% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq in 38%; Al Okhdood have failed to score in 27% of games; Al-Ettifaq in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Okhdood play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Al Okhdood's recent matches and 42% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Al Okhdood's recent games and 38% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Okhdood and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al Okhdood have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ettifaq cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al Okhdood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al Okhdood 0-2 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.00 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.64 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al Okhdood fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.79 / defence 1.11 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.11 / defence 0.80, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 23% | Draw 25% | Al-Ettifaq 52%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 56%, Al-Ettifaq 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.92. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.