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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Damac.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Nassr beat Damac 4-1 at King Saud University Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.19 xG and Damac 0.66 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al-Nassr beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.32 / defence 0.65 against Damac attack 0.73 / defence 1.09, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 72% | Draw 19% | Damac 9%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 72%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 67%, Damac 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Nassr's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Damac's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.30 average — above their attacking norm. Damac (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights