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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Nassr and Al Taawon share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Al-Awwal Park, Regular Season - 32, as Al-Nassr and Al Taawon drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.41 xG and Al Taawon 1.14 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.25 / defence 1.05 against Al Taawon attack 0.74 / defence 0.73, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 43% | Draw 26% | Al Taawon 30%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 78%, Al Taawon 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Nassr's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Al Taawon's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.54. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.53 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights