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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Nassr and Al Shabab share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Al-Awwal Park, Regular Season - 24, as Al-Nassr and Al Shabab drew 2-2 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.06 xG and Al Shabab 1.32 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.30 / defence 0.94 against Al Shabab attack 1.07 / defence 1.05, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 54% | Draw 21% | Al Shabab 24%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 75%, Al Shabab 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Nassr's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Al Shabab's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.46. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights