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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Al Riyadh.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Nassr beat Al Riyadh 5-1 at King Saud University Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.69 xG and Al Riyadh 0.96 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Al-Nassr beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.09 / defence 0.84 against Al Riyadh attack 0.84 / defence 1.03, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 55% | Draw 24% | Al Riyadh 21%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 69%, Al Riyadh 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Nassr's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Riyadh's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights