Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Nassr at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Qadisiyah FC make the trip to King Saud University Stadium to face Al-Nassr in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Friday 20 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Nassr (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Nassr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Nassr's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at King Saud University Stadium this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Saud University Stadium.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's overall Pro League record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.50 for Al-Nassr, 2.50 for Al-Qadisiyah FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Al-Qadisiyah FC hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 1–3 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Nassr — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Al-Qadisiyah FC — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 50% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 66%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Nassr 68% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.47 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.336 / defence 0.743 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.346 / defence 0.778. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.406. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.336 — their λ of 1.47 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence strength of 0.778 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.346 — the away xG of 1.41 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Al-Nassr's defence rating of 0.743 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Al-Nassr games / 38 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 37% | Draw 29% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 40% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: King Saud University Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 37% | Draw 29% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Al-Nassr 1.47 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.336 / def 0.743 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.346 / def 0.778 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Friday 20 November 2026 at King Saud University Stadium.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at King Saud University Stadium.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 37% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Nassr 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 4W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Nassr's attack rating (1.34) and Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack (1.35x) against Al-Nassr's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
37%
2.71
29%
3.45
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.87
1.41
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
9%
11.05
8%
12.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.7 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.41 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Nassr come into this having played 38 games, going 32W 2D 4L for 2.58 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Nassr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Qadisiyah FC sit at 2.26 PPG from 38 outings (26W 8D 4L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.58 PPG for Al-Nassr against 2.26 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Nassr's home form reads 17W 1D 1L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken 2.32 points per game from 19 outings (14W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.71 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 2.39 scored and 0.97 conceded. Al-Nassr's scoring rate against Al-Qadisiyah FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 66%.
Defensively: Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Early Season
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 32W 2D 4L in their last 38 games (2.58 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 26W 8D 4L in their last 38 (2.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.74 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 2.32 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Nassr have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Qadisiyah FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al-Nassr
0
Draws
4
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 0, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-1 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 53%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Al-Nassr and 74% for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al-Nassr's games and 74% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Al-Nassr's matches and 74% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.