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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al Okhdood.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Nassr beat Al Okhdood 3-0 at King Saud University Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.18 xG and Al Okhdood 0.90 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Nassr beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Okhdood landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.49 / defence 0.83 against Al Okhdood attack 0.72 / defence 0.99, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 65% | Draw 23% | Al Okhdood 12%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 70%, Al Okhdood 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Nassr's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Al Okhdood's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights