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Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Kholood.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Nassr beat Al Kholood 2-0 at King Saud University Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.02 xG and Al Kholood 1.34 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al Kholood landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.09 / defence 0.93 against Al Kholood attack 0.93 / defence 1.23, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 53% | Draw 22% | Al Kholood 25%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 71%, Al Kholood 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Nassr's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Al Kholood's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Al Kholood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights