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Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Al Khaleej Saihat.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Nassr beat Al Khaleej Saihat 4-1 at King Saud University Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.15 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.54 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al-Nassr beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.41 / defence 0.85 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.20 / defence 1.00, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 50% | Draw 23% | Al Khaleej Saihat 26%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 69%, Al Khaleej Saihat 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Nassr's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.29 average — above their attacking norm. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights