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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Al-Ittihad FC defy the odds to beat Al-Nassr 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Nassr 2-3 at Al-Awwal Park, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.72 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.41 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC outscored their 1.41 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.23 / defence 0.94 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.05 / defence 0.90, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 44% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad FC 31%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Al-Ittihad FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 78%, Al-Ittihad FC 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Nassr's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Nassr 2.25 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC 1.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ittihad FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights