🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al-Fayha.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Nassr beat Al-Fayha 3-0 at Al-Awwal Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.82 xG and Al-Fayha 1.03 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Nassr beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Fayha landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.17 / defence 0.84 against Al-Fayha attack 0.90 / defence 0.99, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 56% | Draw 23% | Al-Fayha 21%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 75%, Al-Fayha 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Nassr's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Al-Fayha's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights