Al-Nassr 3-0 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Nassr face Al-Fateh.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Fateh make the trip to King Saud University Stadium to face Al-Nassr in Pro League, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Nassr have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Al-Nassr haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Nassr have posted 9W 1D 0L at King Saud University Stadium — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Saud University Stadium.
Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Fateh haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al-Fateh's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.60 in Al-Nassr's favour (2.50 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Al-Nassr, who have won 7 of the last 9 meetings against Al-Fateh — a 1D 1W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.9 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 2–0 with Al-Nassr winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Nassr and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Al-Nassr goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; they lead at the break 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Al-Fateh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 50% versus Al-Fateh 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 65% | Al-Fateh 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.88 xG and Al-Fateh 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.230 / defence 0.833 | Al-Fateh attack 0.844 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.442. Data: 34 Al-Nassr games / 34 Al-Fateh games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 58% | Draw 23% | Al-Fateh 20%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Fateh 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Nassr 40% | Al-Fateh 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: King Saud University Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 58% | Draw 23% | Al-Fateh 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG Al-Nassr 1.88 / Al-Fateh 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.230 / def 0.833 | Al-Fateh attack 0.844 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.565 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Al-Fateh xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 15 August 2026 at King Saud University Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Nassr 3 - 0 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at King Saud University Stadium.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 58% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh?
Record (9 meetings): Al-Nassr 7W | Draws 1 | Al-Fateh 1W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al-Nassr (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Nassr's attack rating (1.23) and Al-Fateh's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.88 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Fateh's attack (0.84x) against Al-Nassr's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
58%
1.74
23%
4.42
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.90
1.01
Al-Fateh xG
1.74
58%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
15%
6.57
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
3%
33.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.5 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.01 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Nassr's recent record stands at 28W 2D 4L from 34 games, a 2.53 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five. Al-Nassr haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 9W 10D 15L across 34 games — 1.09 PPG, with D-L-L-W-D in their last five. Al-Fateh haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Nassr by 1.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fateh heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Nassr have managed 15W 1D 1L from 17 games — 2.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fateh's away record stands at 2W 6D 9L across 17 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.68 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.21 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh in 62%.
Defensively: Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Pre-Season
Al-Fateh
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 28W 2D 4L in their last 34 games (2.53 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 9W 10D 15L in their last 34 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.71 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Nassr won 0-5 on 25 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Nassr have gone 6W 0D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Al-Nassr
1
Draws
1
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 8, Al-Fateh have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Al-Nassr 3-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 53%, Al-Fateh 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Al-Nassr) and 35% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Al-Fateh in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al-Nassr's games and 59% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Al-Nassr's recent games and 35% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al-Fateh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Fateh 3-0 at King Saud University Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.88 xG and Al-Fateh 1.01 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Nassr beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Fateh landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.23 / defence 0.83 against Al-Fateh attack 0.84 / defence 0.98, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 58% | Draw 23% | Al-Fateh 20%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 65%, Al-Fateh 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.53 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.