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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Al-Fateh.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Nassr beat Al-Fateh 5-1 at King Saud University Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.24 xG and Al-Fateh 1.12 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Al-Nassr beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.36 / defence 0.83 against Al-Fateh attack 0.89 / defence 1.13, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 63% | Draw 19% | Al-Fateh 18%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 68%, Al-Fateh 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Nassr's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Fateh's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.16 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights