Al-Nassr 2-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Nassr face Al-Fateh.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Fateh make the trip to Al Awal Park at King Saud University to face Al-Nassr in Pro League, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 February 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Nassr have collected 2.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 9W 0D 1L. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Nassr have posted 8W 1D 1L at Al Awal Park at King Saud University — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Al-Nassr's favour (2.70 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Al-Nassr, who have won 3 of the last 4 meetings against Al-Fateh — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2023, ended 5–0 with Al-Nassr winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Nassr and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Al-Nassr goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Al-Fateh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 49% versus Al-Fateh 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 69% | Al-Fateh 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 2.00 xG and Al-Fateh 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.398 / defence 0.895 | Al-Fateh attack 1.037 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.425. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.398 — their λ of 2.00 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 49 Al-Nassr games / 49 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 53% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Fateh 4.00. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.32 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 50% | Al-Fateh 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Al Awal Park at King Saud University • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 53% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG Al-Nassr 2.00 / Al-Fateh 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.398 / def 0.895 | Al-Fateh attack 1.037 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.425 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Al-Fateh xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Nassr 2 - 1 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 53% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Nassr 3W | Draws 1 | Al-Fateh 0W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Al-Fateh (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Nassr's attack rating (1.40) and Al-Fateh's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 2.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Fateh's attack (1.04x) against Al-Nassr's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
53%
1.89
22%
4.52
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
3.32
1.32
Al-Fateh xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
14%
7.40
Win to Nil
14%
7.08
3%
29.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.32 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Nassr's recent record stands at 35W 8D 6L from 49 games, a 2.31 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 21W 9D 19L across 49 games — 1.47 PPG, with L-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Nassr by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fateh heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Nassr have managed 19W 4D 1L from 24 games — 2.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fateh's away record stands at 12W 3D 9L across 24 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.41 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.65 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 35W 8D 6L in their last 49 games (2.31 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 21W 9D 19L in their last 49 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.54 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Nassr won 0-5 on 25 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Nassr have gone 6W 0D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Al-Nassr
1
Draws
1
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 8, Al-Fateh have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Al-Nassr 3-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 54%, Al-Fateh 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Al-Nassr and 79% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Al-Nassr's games and 62% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Al-Nassr's matches and 79% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out Al-Fateh 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Fateh 2-1 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.00 xG and Al-Fateh 1.32 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.40 / defence 0.90 against Al-Fateh attack 1.04 / defence 0.98, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 53% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 25%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 69%, Al-Fateh 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.47. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.