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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Al Najma defy the odds to beat NEOM 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Najma beat NEOM 2-1 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Najma 1.12 xG and NEOM 2.11 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al Najma beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. NEOM landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Najma attack 0.76 / defence 1.55 against NEOM attack 0.95 / defence 0.94, drawn from 27/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Najma 19% | Draw 21% | NEOM 60%, with NEOM to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Al Najma win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Najma 70%, NEOM 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Najma's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

NEOM's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, NEOM arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.30. Form was overturned, with Al Najma winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Najma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights