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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Damac cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Najma.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Damac beat Al Najma 1-3 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Najma 1.42 xG and Damac 1.32 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Damac outscored their 1.32 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Najma attack 0.80 / defence 1.48 against Damac attack 0.62 / defence 1.19, drawn from 25/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Najma 39% | Draw 27% | Damac 34%, with Al Najma to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Damac win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Najma 68%, Damac 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Najma's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Damac's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Damac arrived the stronger side — 0.76 PPG against 0.32. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Damac (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights