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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al Taawon edge out Al Najma 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Taawon beat Al Najma 1-2 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Najma 1.14 xG and Al Taawon 2.25 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Najma attack 0.82 / defence 1.48 against Al Taawon attack 1.08 / defence 0.89, drawn from 28/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Najma 18% | Draw 19% | Al Taawon 62%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Najma 71%, Al Taawon 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Najma's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Al Taawon's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.39. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights