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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Al Najma defy the odds to beat Al Shabab 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Najma beat Al Shabab 1-0 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Najma 1.28 xG and Al Shabab 1.91 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Shabab landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Najma attack 0.86 / defence 1.47 against Al Shabab attack 0.93 / defence 0.97, drawn from 33/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Najma 24% | Draw 24% | Al Shabab 51%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Al Najma win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Najma 70%, Al Shabab 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Najma's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Al Shabab's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.06 PPG against 0.39. Form was overturned, with Al Najma winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Najma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights