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Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Al Najma.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Nassr beat Al Najma 0-5 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Najma 1.10 xG and Al-Nassr 2.22 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Al Najma fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Al-Nassr outscored their 2.22 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Najma attack 0.91 / defence 1.25 against Al-Nassr attack 1.30 / defence 0.81, drawn from 22/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Najma 17% | Draw 21% | Al-Nassr 62%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Najma 64%, Al-Nassr 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Najma's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al-Nassr's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 0.36. Form held, and they took the win. Al Najma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights