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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Al Najma.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Najma 2-4 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Najma 0.80 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.33 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Al Najma beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Hilal Saudi FC outscored their 2.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Najma attack 0.61 / defence 1.04 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.49 / defence 0.84, drawn from 7/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Najma 10% | Draw 18% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 71%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 71%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Najma 71%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Najma's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Najma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights