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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Najma and Al-Hazm share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Najma and Al-Hazm finished level at 2-2 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Najma 1.37 xG and Al-Hazm 1.38 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Najma attack 0.83 / defence 1.41 against Al-Hazm attack 0.68 / defence 1.10, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Najma 36% | Draw 27% | Al-Hazm 37%, with Al-Hazm to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Najma 71%, Al-Hazm 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Najma's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Hazm's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Hazm arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.39. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Najma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights