🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Al-Fayha edge out Al Najma 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fayha beat Al Najma 1-2 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Najma 1.18 xG and Al-Fayha 1.19 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al-Fayha outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Najma attack 0.69 / defence 1.00 against Al-Fayha attack 0.83 / defence 1.16, drawn from 3/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Najma 36% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 36%, with Al Najma to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Al-Fayha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Najma 67%, Al-Fayha 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Najma's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Fayha's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Fayha arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Fayha scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights