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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Ettifaq edge out Al Najma 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ettifaq beat Al Najma 3-4 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Najma 1.18 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.79 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Al Najma beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ettifaq outscored their 1.79 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Najma attack 0.84 / defence 1.19 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.04 / defence 0.94, drawn from 12/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Najma 25% | Draw 23% | Al-Ettifaq 52%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Najma 67%, Al-Ettifaq 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Najma's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Najma (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights