🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Najma vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Al-Ahli Jeddah travel to King Abdullah Sports City to take on Al Najma. The game is scheduled for Thursday 23 October 2025, 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Al Najma — All Games: 0W 0D 5L from 5 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al Najma have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ahli Jeddah are 1.80 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

Trading Patterns

Al Najma in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.

Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Najma 80% and Al-Ahli Jeddah 40% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Najma 80% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 20%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Najma 0.84 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Najma attack 0.688 / defence 1.097 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.911 / defence 0.765. League average goals — home 1.588 / away 1.522. Al Najma's attack strength of 0.688 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence strength of 0.765 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 5 Al Najma games / 39 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Najma 21% | Draw 26% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 53%. Fair-value odds: Al Najma 4.76 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.89. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Al Najma 80% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights