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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as NEOM defy the odds to beat Al Kholood 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

NEOM beat Al Kholood 2-3 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 2.00 xG and NEOM 1.35 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. NEOM outscored their 1.35 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 1.23 / defence 0.94 against NEOM attack 0.98 / defence 1.09, drawn from 40/6 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 52% | Draw 23% | NEOM 25%, with Al Kholood to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a NEOM win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 67%, NEOM 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Kholood's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

NEOM's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Kholood 1.50 PPG, NEOM 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NEOM win broke the near-deadlock. Al Kholood shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NEOM scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights