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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al Kholood edge out Damac 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Kholood beat Damac 2-1 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.36 xG and Damac 1.24 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 0.96 / defence 0.94 against Damac attack 0.86 / defence 0.93, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 40% | Draw 26% | Damac 34%, with Al Kholood to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 56%, Damac 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Kholood's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Damac's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Kholood 1.11 PPG, Damac 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Kholood win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights